Tuesday, October 12, 2010
The Senatorial Wave
Last week's mainstream media fantasy was that the Republican tide had crested and was now ebbing. The media and the libs have always been under the mistaken impression that if only they could find the right tone to take, if they could just adjust the message a bit, the independents would break their way, the Dem base would be energized and the magic of 2008 would repeat itself. The smug smiles of the lib pundits were oozing all over my TV screen as they announced that Pelosi would hold the House and that the Senate was safe for the sure-to-be returning Harry Reid.
As the Dems see it this current wave of rage is non-specific, directed against 'incumbents' and not related to anything they might have done. According to the leading experts the recession ended almost a year ago so cant we all just get with the program? Look at all the growth statistics! The market's up, the bonuses got delivered on time...whats wrong with these flyover idiots? OK, the boobs in the Red States might get fired up, that's no surprise; these rednecks are generally irascible and we all know that they are racists at heart. Everybody knows those signs at the Tea Party rallies against Pelosi and Reid are just a blind to cover up the racism against Obama. But c'mon...Kentucky? Arkansas? Missouri? Deep redneck country.
Well Missouri is a bit of a disappointment. With the ballot-box-stuffing operations in St. Louis and Kansas City Missouri had become very competitive for Democrats but last week, in the middle of this supposed Democrat recovery in the polls, the Democrat Senatorial Committee pulled all its money out of the Missouri race. There arent any Red States where any Dem Senate candidate has a ghost of a chance. Florida, long a Dem hope, is gone. North Carolina, New Hampshire...all long gone into the red column.
But where the Dem's hearts have been broken is in Ohio, Colorado, Robert Byrd's West Virginia, Barak's old seat in Illinois, Harry Reid's baronial estate of Nevada, Washington and even the perpetually blue California. They should not have to be spending a penny in any of these but the first two. California has always been a cash cow for out-of-state Dems to raise money for tough campaigns but the aging and stumbling Boxer is in huge trouble and sucking up every penny her union owners can spare. As a long-time resident of Cali I can witness to the fact that the public polls always way oversample Democrats but even with that said Boxer has yet to crack 50% in any poll. The turnout will determine this race and I think Babs is in big trouble.
Ohio is a long-held dream for the Dems. This is the ultimate state for them, the state that could have made John Kerry, the only person in the country less qualified for the Presidency than Barak Obama, president. If Ohio would turn Blue America would be Blue forever. Not this year. Ohio is blood red. The Dems dream of bagging a Repub stronghold is gone. Nevada, a state I grew up in and have visited several times in the last couple of weeks on family business, is gone. I dont care what the polls say, its not even going to be close. People hate Reid, even the ones who will vote against Angle. There is no chance for him to pull this out at this point. After tens of millions of dollars in smear ads any more spending would be like laying poultices on a dead man.
Now the real bad news for the left. The fight is in the Blue States, states they shouldnt have to be fighting for at all. Pennsylvania is over, Washington is sliding out of reach, Feingold is tanking in Wisconsin and now the Dems are diverting resources and campaign visits by the celebs to Connecticut and Delaware in a last desperate gasp to retain control of the Senate.
In this landscape of disaster the Dems have yet to admit that their own actions are behind this almost universal rejection of their candidates. The only criticism of the completely failed 'Stimulus' program is that they didnt spend enough. Health Care is unpopular, according to the lefties, because Big Insurance is using the love that all good rednecks have for them to turn the populace against what's good for them in the long run. There's no Depression; this is Recovery Summer! The debt is all Bush's fault.
But its a summer where millions of middle-aged people have lost their jobs forever, where college grads are home living with Mom and Dad wondering how they'll be able to make the next payment on the six-figure student loans that financed their worthless degrees. The people still working are gripped with terror that they are on the list for the next cut by their employers. Every industry is cutting workers and even minimum-wage fast-food jobs wont touch a 55 year old laid off middle manager. The Dems have taken every opportunity to insult regular Americans with stuff like the Ground Zero Mosque and calling the people in Arizona racists for complaining about their state being overrun by foreign criminals.
The truth is that the lie that had sustained the Dems for nearly a generation was cast aside in their euphoria in 2008. Demos had always run on the lie that they were way more conservative than they were. They painted themselves as a more humane alternative to those crabby, country-club Republicans. In 2008 they mistook a turnout by the Marching Morons to support the Hope And Change fairytale as real support for their leftist agenda so they abandoned the pretense of moderation and for a year they partied, secure in the knowledge that the country, except for a few pathetic teabaggers waving their sad little homemade signs in the public park, loved them and believed in what they were doing.
One in five is either unemployed or underemployed. The Iranians are developing nukes and we have lost the ability to do anything about it. The dollar is falling. The Bush Tax Cuts will expire on Jan 1, further tanking the sick economy. If capital gains rates are due to double at the end of the year you can look for a wave of selling in the stock market that could turn into a stampede down to 5 or 6,000. Banks will teeter again as the wave of foreclosures intensifies and their 20%+ credit card rates push more and more people into default. The geniuses educated at Princeton and Harvard and similar 'elite' universities do not have sufficient knowledge or reasoning skills to deal with this and the Administration and top of the state and business bureaucracies are composed of nothing but careerist Ivy Leaguers, completely at sea but convinced of their own infallibility.
The Senate will be Republican. They will gain at least twelve seats. Most of the races wont even be close. The House will be a similar wipeout. Barry Obama will be faced with a Congress controlled in both houses by a majority which will contain a minority of energized ultra- conservatives brought into office on a wave of anger and a faction of 'moderates' who are now terrorized that they are on the Tea Party death list for 2012 and who wont be crossing the aisle anytime soon. Meanwhile the demoralized Dems will have to contend with the fact that their leader in the White House is an arrogant, out-of-touch, hopeless incompetent and that its every man for himself. The idea that the Dems will walk away from an historic defeat and pass Cap And Trade and Card Check in the lame duck session is ludicrous. They cant be that stupid, can they?