Thursday, October 21, 2010
The October Dip
Oh no! If you look at the polls it seems that there has been a minor 'counter wave' to the Republican wave of 2010. Some races that were Republican blowouts a couple weeks ago are now described as 'tightening up'. With the Dems making every political mistake in the book, with Obama running around the country saying things that can only be described as bizarre, with a raging population angry at just about everything the Demos have said or done in the last two years, with an economy that ensures that school-leavers and middle-aged downsize victims are looking at more or less permanent unemployment, what could be the cause of this unlikely surge towards the Party Of Compassion?
If you have a brain in your head you can see that nothing has changed in the political tide in the last year, except that people have gotten more mad and more frustrated with what has been going on. So where has this mysterious 'surge' come from? What has caused the tidal flow to start running in the direction of the Demos? All their negative attack ads? The ones in my state, Gollyvornia, have reached the point of absurdity. Barbara Boxer is attacking her opponent for supporting 'job-killing offshore oil drilling' and quotes the president of the Sierra Club to underline the seriousness of this charge. Its scary to live in a place where that is considered a winning argument. What kind of a moron do you have to be to swallow that? It turns out that Babs and Jerry Brown are the two most powerful engines of job creation since Henry Ford died.
With this Demo surge the Dems are acting very strangely. Instead of counterattacking into states that had formerly been leaning Republican that are now 'in play' according to the polls the Dems are sending their big guns and moola into places that have supposedly been sewed-up Blue. Why are they all going to Delaware? Did BJ Clinton hear about the herd of plump interns grazing in the fields just outside of Wilmington? Did Obama hear of a must-play golf course near Dover? Did Biden get lost trying to drive to West Virginia? If that creepy critter Coons had this seat in the bag why are the celebs all crowding into this hard-core Blue State?
And look at West Virginia. Manchin's numbers were tanking. All of a sudden some off-brand leftist group releases a poll that has him ten points ahead, it gets averaged into the RCP average and whoa! Manchin is ahead! There was some phony made-up story about Raece's ad agency casting 'hickey' actors but in a state worried about Cap And Trade anti-coal rules and super high unemployment is that 'hickey' piece of WaPo-NYT wonk-chow likely to change a single vote?
Here in my beloved home state of Gollyvornia there has been the same Demo bump but it seems to be sagging. Babs Boxer is a hard sell, probably because the assonance of her name makes it easy to snarl 'BAR-bra BO-xer!' in the ads attacking her. Even the most Photoshopped photos of her cant conceal her overripe condition and dwarf stature. Boxer has never polled at fifty percent. Now Fiorina is neck and neck and Babs knows that a low Demo turnout will Scott Brown her into the trash can of history.
Meanwhile back at the desert depression, there has been a mainstream media news blackout since Sharron Angle took the sniveling Majority Leader to the woodshed in their only debate. She's polling over fifty, the lines of Older White Males are around the block at the early voting stations and the hapless Reid campaign has shown its completely unable to come up with a new message that has any resonance. If there was a Dem surge surely the supposedly razor-tight Nevada Senate race would be up in the air. But it aint.
So what's with the Demo bump? Its easy. First, this happens in every election. In the last one there was a McLame bump a couple of weeks before the election. It was probably generated by a bunch of McLame-hating Tea Party-types who told the pollsters 'yeah, I guess I'll go vote for that moron' who were then counted as 'likely voters'. When it came right down to it they just couldnt get past the lines of glue-sniffing Hope And Change voters and the baseball-bat-wielding New Black Panthers to cast a vote for a stuttering liberal that everybody knew was going to get skunked.
The same thing is happening now. After being begged by Obama, Biden, BJ Clinton (not Hilly BTW), and every local Democrat that they can round up the Hope And Change voters are feeling guilty that they are having such ambivalent feelings about what's going on and are telling the pollsters that 'yeah, I guess I'll go vote for those morons.' So what has happened is that people who have seen that 800 number on their screen and picked up the phone and stayed on the line for the interview have included more Dems than there have been lately. This has generated a slight bump for the Dems.
The Dems need a bump like this two weeks out. What it does is generate money and volunteers for campaigns that are actually terminal. Sestak, Boxer, Feingold, Manchin, Murray all are watching the real numbers slip away. Boxer and Murray are also worried that the polls in their states will still be open while the Dem wipeout back East becomes crystal-clear, suppressing the Dem turnout in their states. The coming O'Donnell victory in Delaware could cause loses in Senate seats in CA and WA as Dems shrug and say 'whats the point?'
What will happen? In the last few days the pollsters, worried about their reputations, will tighten up their methodology. The last poll is the one that everyone looks at when they are judging how accurate any polling organization is. What these last weekend polls will show, when its too late to make a difference, is a huge Scott Brown-type surge all over the country but especially in places like Delaware, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Colorado and Illinois. And dare we hope New York? They will show a sudden surge towards the Repub candidates when in fact they are only showing what was there all along.
Republicans will vote this time and Dems will stay home. The real numbers on Nov. 2nd will bear this out. There wont be some huge turn on the last weekend; there was a huge turn the day that the stimulus failed to lower the unemployment numbers, the day that people realized that the Health Care Bill was going to raise their insurance rates to the breaking point, the day Obama stood up for the GZ mosque, the day the Dems jumped all over Arizona. The anger that was always there will still be there on Nov 2nd. The despair amongst the Hope and Changers will still be there. The X Factor in all this polling, turnout, will be shown to be all on the side of the Repubs.
And I will be in front of my TV set watching a weeping Chris Coons, a brave-in-defeat Bloomberg, a shocked Gianouliaus, a shell-shocked Harry Reid saying 'the election is lost' to a crowd of weeping public employees, a Mom In Tennis Shoes cursing the voters in Washington and most of all I will be dancing and cheering as an over-coiffed, sawed-off little shrimp of a haggard Marxist dwarf berates the Tea Party extremists here in Gollyvornia who wouldnt let her return to the Senate.